Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 29 · 14:30 · FC Bayern München vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 76%
A 18% draw. The market says 10%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München76%86%−10
OursMarket
Draw18%10%+8
OursMarket
St. Pauli6%4%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 73% | −25 |
| Double chance 1X | 94% | 96% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 24% | 14% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 90% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 92% | 95% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Nov 26 · at Arsenal (A)1-3
- Nov 22 · v SC Freiburg (H)6-2
- Nov 8 · at FC Union Berlin (A)2-2
- Nov 4 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)2-1
- Nov 1 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-0
St. Pauli
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 23 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-4
- Oct 25 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-2
- Oct 19 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 10-0-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.