Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 8 · 16:30 · FC Bayern München vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 64%
We make it 36% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 24%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München64%75%−11
OursMarket
Draw19%14%+5
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim16%11%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 76% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 89% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 25% | +11 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 87% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Jan 31 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-2
- Jan 28 · at PSV (A)2-1
- Jan 24 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-2
- Jan 21 · v Union Saint-Gilloise (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · at RB Leipzig (A)5-1
TSG Hoffenheim
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 31 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Jan 27 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- Jan 24 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Jan 17 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-0
- Jan 14 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-1-1 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·TSG Hoffenheim form·Head-to-head record