Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 19 · 15:30 · FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 71%
We make it 28% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München71%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−2
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart14%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 76% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 15 · v Real Madrid (H)4-3
- Apr 11 · at St. Pauli (A)5-0
- Apr 7 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
- Apr 4 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-2
- Mar 21 · v FC Union Berlin (H)4-0
VfB Stuttgart
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 12 · v Hamburger SV (H)4-0
- Apr 4 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-2
- Mar 22 · at FC Augsburg (A)5-2
- Mar 19 · at Porto (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-1-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·VfB Stuttgart form·Head-to-head record