DFB Pokal (Germany) · Sat, May 23 · 18:00 · FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 73%
We make it 72% for both teams to score. The market says 62%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München73%71%+2
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart12%13%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 72% | 62% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 87% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 29% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 85% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- May 16 · v FC Köln (H)5-1
- May 9 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
- May 6 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Heidenheim (H)3-3
- Apr 28 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)4-5
VfB Stuttgart
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- May 16 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- May 9 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-1
- May 2 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-3
- Apr 26 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-1
- Apr 23 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.