Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:30 · FC Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 63%
A 21% away win. The market says 11%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München63%75%−12
OursMarket
Draw16%14%+2
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart21%11%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 78% | −20 |
| Both teams score | 73% | 64% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 89% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 25% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 86% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 88% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- May 23 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-0
- May 16 · v FC Köln (H)5-1
- May 9 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-0
- May 6 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)1-1
- May 2 · v Heidenheim (H)3-3
VfB Stuttgart
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Aug 21 · at F.C. Hansa Rostock (A)4-0
- May 23 · at FC Bayern München (A)0-3
- May 16 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-2
- May 9 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-1
- May 2 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-2-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·VfB Stuttgart form·Head-to-head record