Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Jan 11 · 16:30 · FC Bayern München vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: FC Bayern München win · 73%
We make it 33% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 22%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Bayern München73%85%−13
OursMarket
Draw16%9%+7
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg11%5%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 78% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 95% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 15% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 91% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 94% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Bayern München
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Dec 21 · at Heidenheim (A)4-0
- Dec 14 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-2
- Dec 9 · v Sporting CP (H)3-1
- Dec 6 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)5-0
- Dec 3 · at FC Union Berlin (A)3-2
VfL Wolfsburg
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Dec 20 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-4
- Dec 13 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-1
- Dec 6 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Nov 30 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Bayern München | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
FC Bayern München form·VfL Wolfsburg form·Head-to-head record