Superliga (Romania) · Fri, Oct 23 · 15:00 · FC Botoșani vs FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Likeliest: FC Botoșani win · 50%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Botoșani50%52%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
FC Petrolul Ploieşti23%22%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Botoșani
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at FC Dinamo București (A)0-2
- Oct 10 · v UTA Arad (H)2-0
- Sep 19 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at FC Argeș Pitești (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Sepsi OSK (H)5-0
FC Petrolul Ploieşti
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 17 · v Sepsi OSK (H)1-1
- Oct 11 · at FC Farul Constanța (A)1-3
- Sep 21 · v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at FCSB (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Corvinul Hunedoara (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Botoșani | FC Petrolul Ploieşti |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.