Superliga (Romania) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:15 · FC Botoșani vs UTA Arad
Likeliest: FC Botoșani win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Botoșani38%40%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
UTA Arad33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Botoșani
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at FC Argeș Pitești (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Sepsi OSK (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at FC Farul Constanța (A)0-0
- Aug 24 · v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (H)1-0
UTA Arad
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 18 · v Sepsi OSK (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at FC Farul Constanța (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (H)5-1
- Aug 30 · at FCSB (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · v FC Corvinul Hunedoara (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Botoșani | UTA Arad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.