Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 18 · 18:15 · FC Cajamarca vs CD Moquegua
Likeliest: FC Cajamarca win · 52%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Cajamarca52%54%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
CD Moquegua22%21%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Cajamarca
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sport Huancayo (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)2-1
CD Moquegua
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 8 · v Cienciano (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)0-4
- Sep 13 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Cusco FC (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | FC Cajamarca | CD Moquegua |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-1-9 | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.