Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Wed, Aug 12 · 00:10 · FC Cincinnati vs Atlas FC
Likeliest: FC Cincinnati win · 52%
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Cincinnati52%57%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Atlas FC24%20%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 62% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 43% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 74% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Cincinnati
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Aug 12 · v Atlas FC (H)1-2
- Aug 8 · v Pumas UNAM (H)2-0
- Aug 4 · v CF Pachuca (H)3-1
- Aug 2 · v San Jose Earthquakes (H)4-2
- Jul 25 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-2
Atlas FC
WinLossLossLossWin
- Aug 12 · at FC Cincinnati (A)2-1
- Aug 7 · at Charlotte FC (A)0-2
- Aug 4 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-3
- Aug 2 · v CF Monterrey (H)0-2
- Jul 26 · at Santos Laguna (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Cincinnati | Atlas FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.