Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:00 · FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew
Likeliest: FC Cincinnati win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Cincinnati49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+1
OursMarket
Columbus Crew26%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Cincinnati
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 14 · v New England Revolution (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Atlanta United (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · at CF Montréal (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Houston Dynamo (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Charlotte FC (H)3-3
Columbus Crew
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 14 · v Charlotte FC (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Orlando City SC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Inter Miami CF (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at CF Montréal (A)2-0
- Sep 16 · v Orlando City SC (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Cincinnati | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.