Major League Soccer (USA) · Wed, Oct 21 · 23:00 · FC Cincinnati vs DC United
Likeliest: FC Cincinnati win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Cincinnati54%53%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
DC United23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Cincinnati
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Columbus Crew (H)0-2
- Oct 14 · v New England Revolution (H)2-3
- Oct 10 · at Atlanta United (A)3-1
- Sep 26 · at CF Montréal (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · at Houston Dynamo (A)2-2
DC United
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 17 · at Orlando City SC (A)1-4
- Oct 14 · v New York Red Bulls (H)2-1
- Oct 10 · at Inter Miami CF (A)0-4
- Sep 27 · at Vancouver Whitecaps (A)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Charlotte FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Cincinnati | DC United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-6-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.