First League (Bulgaria) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:00 · FC CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
Likeliest: FC CSKA 1948 Sofia win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia44%45%0
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Botev Plovdiv27%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 11 · v CSKA Sofia (H)2-3
- Sep 18 · at Slavia Sofia (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FK Dunav Ruse (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
Botev Plovdiv
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Slavia Sofia (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-1 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.