First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Oct 11 · 17:00 · FC CSKA 1948 Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
Likeliest: CSKA Sofia win · 50%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 50% for the away win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia21%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
CSKA Sofia50%48%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 33% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
LossWinLossWinWin
- Sep 18 · at Slavia Sofia (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FK Dunav Ruse (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-1
- Aug 28 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)0-1
CSKA Sofia
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Cherno More Varna (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | FC CSKA 1948 Sofia | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-0 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.