Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:30 · FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes
Likeliest: FC Dallas win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dallas56%54%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
San Jose Earthquakes22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dallas
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 18 · at Houston Dynamo (A)2-2
- Oct 15 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Charlotte FC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Los Angeles FC (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Austin FC (H)0-0
San Jose Earthquakes
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v Nashville SC (H)1-1
- Oct 15 · at Real Salt Lake (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · at Colorado Rapids (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Portland Timbers (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Los Angeles FC (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Dallas | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 1-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.