Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 00:30 · FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders FC
Likeliest: FC Dallas win · 52%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dallas52%55%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Seattle Sounders FC24%22%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 78% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 71% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dallas
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Charlotte FC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Los Angeles FC (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Austin FC (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v Portland Timbers (H)2-1
- Sep 10 · at Minnesota United (A)2-1
Seattle Sounders FC
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · at New England Revolution (A)3-0
- Oct 2 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · v Minnesota United (H)3-1
- Sep 24 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Colorado Rapids (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Dallas | Seattle Sounders FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.