Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:00 · FC Den Bosch vs ADO Den Haag
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 46%
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 55%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Den Bosch31%11%+20
OursMarket
Draw22%16%+6
OursMarket
ADO Den Haag46%73%−26
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 68% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 55% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 27% | +26 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 89% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 13% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Den Bosch
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Apr 20 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-1
- Apr 17 · at TOP Oss (A)2-4
- Apr 10 · v SC Cambuur (H)1-1
- Apr 6 · at Almere City (A)2-1
- Mar 21 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)3-2
ADO Den Haag
WinWinWinLossWin
- Apr 17 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)5-1
- Apr 12 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-1
- Apr 6 · v FC Eindhoven (H)4-0
- Apr 3 · v Jong Ajax (H)4-2
- Mar 22 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Den Bosch | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.