Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · FC Den Bosch vs MVV Maastricht
Likeliest: FC Den Bosch win · 55%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 55% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Den Bosch55%53%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%−1
OursMarket
MVV Maastricht23%25%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 75% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Den Bosch
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 16 · v TOP Oss (H)2-1
- Oct 9 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at De Graafschap (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-1
MVV Maastricht
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-5
- Oct 9 · at NAC Breda (A)0-1
- Oct 3 · at TOP Oss (A)1-4
- Sep 26 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-0
- Sep 18 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)1-6
| Last 10 games | FC Den Bosch | MVV Maastricht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.