Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 16 · 18:00 · FC Den Bosch vs TOP Oss
Likeliest: FC Den Bosch win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Den Bosch56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
TOP Oss21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 66% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Den Bosch
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 9 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-0
- Oct 3 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at De Graafschap (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v Helmond Sport (H)2-1
- Sep 13 · at FC Volendam (A)0-2
TOP Oss
LossWinLossWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Helmond Sport (H)3-1
- Oct 3 · v MVV Maastricht (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at FC Emmen (A)0-1
- Sep 18 · v FC Dordrecht (H)3-0
- Sep 11 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Den Bosch | TOP Oss |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.