Superliga (Romania) · Sun, Sep 20 · 17:30 · FC Dinamo București vs FC Farul Constanța
Likeliest: FC Dinamo București win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dinamo București58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
FC Farul Constanța19%19%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 81% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dinamo București
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Sep 11 · at FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v FCSB (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at FC Corvinul Hunedoara (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v FC Universitatea Cluj (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at FC Rapid București (A)1-0
FC Farul Constanța
DrawDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 11 · v UTA Arad (H)4-2
- Sep 4 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v FC Botoșani (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at Sepsi OSK (A)1-1
- Aug 14 · at FC Argeș Pitești (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Dinamo București | FC Farul Constanța |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 0-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.