Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Apr 12 · 10:15 · FC Dordrecht vs ADO Den Haag
Likeliest: ADO Den Haag win · 50%
We make it 48% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dordrecht25%26%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
ADO Den Haag50%49%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 59% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 61% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 35% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dordrecht
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Apr 6 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-3
- Mar 20 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-3
- Mar 17 · v TOP Oss (H)2-2
- Mar 14 · at De Graafschap (A)1-2
ADO Den Haag
WinWinWinWinWin
- Apr 6 · v FC Eindhoven (H)4-0
- Apr 3 · v Jong Ajax (H)4-2
- Mar 22 · at De Graafschap (A)2-1
- Mar 17 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
- Mar 13 · at FC Emmen (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Dordrecht | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.