Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 25 · 19:00 · FC Dordrecht vs Almere City FC
Likeliest: Almere City FC win · 47%
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dordrecht29%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Almere City FC47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 68% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dordrecht
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · at TOP Oss (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)3-6
- Aug 28 · at FC Volendam (A)1-6
- Aug 21 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-1
Almere City FC
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 18 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at MVV Maastricht (A)4-0
- Sep 4 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at De Graafschap (A)4-1
- Aug 21 · at Vitesse (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | FC Dordrecht | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.