Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:00 · FC Dordrecht vs FC Emmen
Likeliest: FC Emmen win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dordrecht32%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
FC Emmen43%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dordrecht
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Sep 25 · v Almere City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at TOP Oss (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)3-6
FC Emmen
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Oct 3 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v TOP Oss (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · v De Graafschap (H)1-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Volendam (H)5-3
| Last 10 games | FC Dordrecht | FC Emmen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.