Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:30 · FC Dordrecht vs VVV-Venlo
Likeliest: VVV-Venlo win · 47%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dordrecht28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
VVV-Venlo47%45%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dordrecht
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- Oct 19 · at Jong PSV Eindhoven (A)1-0
- Oct 9 · v FC Emmen (H)0-3
- Oct 3 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Sep 25 · v Almere City FC (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at TOP Oss (A)0-3
VVV-Venlo
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 16 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)4-4
- Oct 9 · at Jong Ajax (A)3-0
- Oct 4 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)2-0
- Sep 26 · at FC Volendam (A)2-3
- Sep 18 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | FC Dordrecht | VVV-Venlo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.