Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 24 · 18:00 · FC Dordrecht vs Willem II
Likeliest: Willem II win · 40%
We make it 53% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Dordrecht33%34%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Willem II40%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 59% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 63% | −15 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 46% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Dordrecht
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- Apr 17 · at Almere City (A)1-4
- Apr 12 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-0
- Apr 6 · at SC Cambuur (A)1-1
- Apr 3 · v Roda JC Kerkrade (H)0-3
- Mar 20 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-3
Willem II
LossWinWinWinWin
- Apr 17 · v Jong AZ (H)3-0
- Apr 12 · v Almere City (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-0
- Apr 3 · v Jong PSV (H)1-0
- Mar 28 · v De Graafschap (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Dordrecht | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.