Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 3 · 18:00 · FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap
Likeliest: De Graafschap win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Eindhoven31%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
De Graafschap44%42%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Eindhoven
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at NAC Breda (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v FC Emmen (H)3-1
- Sep 11 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-3
De Graafschap
LossLossWinLossWin
- Sep 27 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v NAC Breda (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at FC Emmen (A)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · v Almere City FC (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | FC Eindhoven | De Graafschap |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.