Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 30 · 10:15 · FC Eindhoven vs Heracles Almelo
Likeliest: FC Eindhoven win · 62%
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 21%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Eindhoven62%21%+41
OursMarket
Draw20%23%−3
OursMarket
Heracles Almelo18%56%−38
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 44% | +38 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 79% | −41 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 28% | +50 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Eindhoven
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 21 · at FC Den Bosch (A)2-5
- Aug 14 · v MVV Maastricht (H)2-3
- Aug 10 · at Jong AZ Alkmaar (A)1-0
- Apr 24 · v Helmond Sport (H)1-0
- Apr 17 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)0-3
Heracles Almelo
LossLossWinWinWin
- Aug 24 · at Jong FC Utrecht Youth (A)6-1
- Aug 14 · v FC Den Bosch (H)3-2
- Aug 7 · at VVV-Venlo (A)4-3
- May 17 · v FC Groningen (H)1-2
- May 10 · at Telstar (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | FC Eindhoven | Heracles Almelo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.