Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · FC Eindhoven vs Jong PSV Eindhoven
Likeliest: FC Eindhoven win · 43%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 41% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 31%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Eindhoven43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Jong PSV Eindhoven33%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 69% | −10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 69% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Eindhoven
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 16 · v Vitesse (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Almere City FC (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · v De Graafschap (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at NAC Breda (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v FC Emmen (H)3-1
Jong PSV Eindhoven
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 19 · v FC Dordrecht (H)0-1
- Oct 9 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · at Vitesse (A)1-3
- Sep 14 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Eindhoven | Jong PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.