Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:30 · FC Emmen vs Almere City FC
Likeliest: FC Emmen win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Emmen42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+1
OursMarket
Almere City FC32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Emmen
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 9 · at FC Dordrecht (A)3-0
- Oct 3 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v TOP Oss (H)1-0
- Sep 18 · at FC Eindhoven (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · v De Graafschap (H)1-2
Almere City FC
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · v FC Eindhoven (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · v FC Volendam (H)1-0
- Sep 25 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Heracles Almelo (H)1-0
- Sep 11 · at MVV Maastricht (A)4-0
| Last 10 games | FC Emmen | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.