Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Feb 27 · 19:00 · FC Emmen vs Willem II
Likeliest: FC Emmen win · 54%
A 54% home win. The market says 37%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Emmen54%37%+17
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Willem II24%37%−12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 63% | +12 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 63% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 50% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Emmen
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Feb 23 · v Jong Ajax (H)0-0
- Feb 20 · v Jong PSV (H)2-3
- Feb 13 · at FC Dordrecht (A)0-1
- Jan 30 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Jan 17 · at TOP Oss (A)0-4
Willem II
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Feb 24 · v ADO Den Haag (H)0-1
- Feb 20 · v Vitesse (H)3-0
- Feb 16 · at Jong FC Utrecht (A)1-1
- Feb 8 · v RKC Waalwijk (H)2-1
- Feb 2 · at Jong Ajax (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Emmen | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.