Superliga (Romania) · Sun, Oct 11 · 18:00 · FC Farul Constanța vs FC Petrolul Ploieşti
Likeliest: FC Farul Constanța win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Farul Constanța50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
FC Petrolul Ploieşti23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Farul Constanța
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at FC Dinamo București (A)0-4
- Sep 11 · v UTA Arad (H)4-2
- Sep 4 · at CFR 1907 Cluj (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v FC Botoșani (H)0-0
- Aug 23 · at Sepsi OSK (A)1-1
FC Petrolul Ploieşti
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 21 · v FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at FCSB (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v FC Corvinul Hunedoara (H)2-0
- Aug 28 · at FC Universitatea Cluj (A)3-2
- Aug 21 · v FC Rapid București (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | FC Farul Constanța | FC Petrolul Ploieşti |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-0 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.