Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Sep 5 · 12:00 · FC Fredericia vs Esbjerg
Likeliest: FC Fredericia win · 49%
We make it 46% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 32%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Fredericia49%63%−13
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+4
OursMarket
Esbjerg28%18%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 68% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 65% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 37% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 78% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Fredericia
DrawDrawWinDrawLoss
- Aug 30 · at Hvidovre (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · at AaB (A)3-0
- Aug 9 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)1-1
- Jul 31 · at AB (A)1-1
Esbjerg
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)0-2
- Aug 21 · at Vejle (A)2-4
- Aug 15 · v Hobro (H)1-2
- Aug 9 · at Hvidovre (A)1-2
- Aug 1 · at Hillerød (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Fredericia | Esbjerg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.