Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Oct 17 · 16:30 · FC Fredericia vs Hobro
Likeliest: FC Fredericia win · 70%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Fredericia70%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Hobro12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Fredericia
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Hillerød (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · v Vejle (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Kolding IF (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Esbjerg (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Hvidovre (A)1-2
Hobro
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Kolding IF (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at HB Køge (A)2-5
- Sep 11 · v Vejle (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Hvidovre (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Hillerød (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Fredericia | Hobro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-0 | 7-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.