Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · FC Fredericia vs Vejle
Likeliest: FC Fredericia win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Fredericia44%44%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Vejle30%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Fredericia
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 12 · at Kolding IF (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v Esbjerg (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Hvidovre (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · at AaB (A)3-0
Vejle
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 17 · v Brøndby IF (H)1-2
- Sep 11 · at Hobro (A)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Vendsyssel FF (H)4-1
- Aug 30 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)0-0
- Aug 21 · v Esbjerg (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | FC Fredericia | Vejle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-1 | 5-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 63% | 33% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.