Indian Super League (India) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · FC Goa vs Chennaiyin FC
Likeliest: FC Goa win · 59%
We make it 58% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Goa59%54%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Chennaiyin FC17%20%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 49% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 50% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 46% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 73% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Goa
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Aug 12 · at Arkadag FK (A)0-3
- May 18 · at Kerala Blasters (A)1-2
- May 9 · v ATK Mohun Bagan (H)1-1
- May 1 · at Jamshedpur (A)0-2
- Apr 24 · at NorthEast United (A)2-0
Chennaiyin FC
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- May 16 · v Bengaluru (H)1-2
- May 10 · at NorthEast United (A)1-4
- May 6 · at Minerva Punjab (A)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Jamshedpur (A)1-4
- Apr 21 · v Mohammedan (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | FC Goa | Chennaiyin FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.