Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Oct 18 · 14:45 · FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax
Likeliest: AFC Ajax win · 58%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
AFC Ajax58%54%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 70% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 65% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 25% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
LossDrawDrawWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Excelsior (A)5-1
- Sep 18 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-0
- Sep 12 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v FC Twente (H)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
AFC Ajax
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Excelsior (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · v Willem II Tilburg (H)5-1
- Sep 12 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.