Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Mar 7 · 15:30 · FC Groningen vs Ajax
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 42%
A 42% home win. The market says 34%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen42%34%+8
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Ajax35%40%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 60% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 66% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 46% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Mar 1 · at FC Volendam (A)2-3
- Feb 22 · at FC Twente (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · v FC Utrecht (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Jan 31 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
Ajax
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- Mar 1 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-0
- Feb 21 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-1
- Feb 14 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)4-1
- Feb 8 · at AZ (A)1-1
- Feb 1 · at Excelsior (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.