Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, May 2 · 16:45 · FC Groningen vs Excelsior
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 50%
We make it 50% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen50%56%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Excelsior26%21%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 62% | −12 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 79% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 44% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 72% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Feyenoord (A)1-3
- Apr 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-0
- Apr 4 · at Telstar (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v AZ (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-1
Excelsior
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Apr 26 · v FC Utrecht (H)5-0
- Apr 12 · at PEC Zwolle (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)0-2
- Mar 20 · at Heracles Almelo (A)1-1
- Mar 15 · at Feyenoord (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.