Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 6 · 10:15 · FC Groningen vs FC Twente
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 29%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen39%29%+10
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
FC Twente38%46%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 62% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 54% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 71% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 38% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 28 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-5
- Aug 16 · at ADO Den Haag (A)4-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-1
- May 21 · at Ajax (A)0-2
FC Twente
DrawWinLossWinWin
- Aug 30 · at SC Cambuur (A)4-1
- Aug 27 · at Qarabağ (A)2-1
- Aug 20 · v Qarabağ (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-1
- Aug 13 · at DAC 1904 (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.