Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Feb 14 · 20:00 · FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 54%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen54%47%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
FC Utrecht22%26%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 48% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 74% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 53% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 65% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Feb 8 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Jan 31 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)0-2
- Jan 25 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)1-2
- Jan 18 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v NAC Breda (H)0-0
FC Utrecht
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Feb 11 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)3-1
- Feb 8 · v Feyenoord (H)0-1
- Feb 1 · at SC Heerenveen (A)1-1
- Jan 29 · at Celtic (A)2-4
- Jan 25 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.