Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Aug 9 · 12:30 · FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%27%−1
OursMarket
FC Utrecht35%32%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 56% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
LossLossWinWinLoss
- May 21 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- May 17 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-1
- May 10 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-1
- May 2 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Feyenoord (A)1-3
FC Utrecht
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- May 24 · at Ajax (A)1-1
- May 24 · at AFC Ajax (A)0-0
- May 21 · v SC Heerenveen (H)3-2
- May 17 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-0
- May 10 · at Ajax (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.