Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Jan 25 · 13:30 · FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 56%
A 23% away win. The market says 17%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen56%60%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard23%17%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 40% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 78% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
WinWinDrawDrawWin
- Jan 18 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Jan 10 · v NAC Breda (H)0-0
- Dec 21 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-1
- Dec 13 · v FC Volendam (H)3-0
- Dec 5 · at Excelsior (A)2-0
Fortuna Sittard
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Jan 17 · v PSV (H)1-2
- Jan 11 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)2-2
- Dec 21 · v AZ (H)4-3
- Dec 17 · v Almere City (H)2-3
- Dec 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.