Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Aug 28 · 18:00 · FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen58%63%−6
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+2
OursMarket
Fortuna Sittard20%16%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 61% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 84% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 37% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 79% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 23 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-5
- Aug 16 · at ADO Den Haag (A)4-1
- Aug 9 · v FC Utrecht (H)2-1
- May 21 · at Ajax (A)0-2
- May 17 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-1
Fortuna Sittard
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Aug 22 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)0-2
- Aug 15 · v SC Cambuur (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)2-2
- May 17 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- May 10 · v PEC Zwolle (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.