Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Apr 11 · 18:00 · FC Groningen vs Go Ahead Eagles
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 48%
A 29% away win. The market says 24%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen48%53%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Go Ahead Eagles29%24%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 76% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 47% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 69% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Apr 4 · at Telstar (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v AZ (H)3-0
- Mar 13 · at PEC Zwolle (A)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Ajax (H)3-1
- Mar 1 · at FC Volendam (A)2-3
Go Ahead Eagles
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 5 · v PEC Zwolle (H)5-0
- Mar 22 · at FC Utrecht (A)0-2
- Mar 15 · v NAC Breda (H)6-0
- Mar 8 · v FC Twente (H)1-4
- Mar 1 · at Excelsior (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | Go Ahead Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.