Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, May 10 · 14:45 · FC Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen
Likeliest: NEC Nijmegen win · 46%
A 46% away win. The market says 41%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen33%34%−1
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
NEC Nijmegen46%41%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 66% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
WinWinDrawLossLoss
- May 2 · v Excelsior (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Feyenoord (A)1-3
- Apr 11 · v Go Ahead Eagles (H)0-0
- Apr 4 · at Telstar (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v AZ (H)3-0
NEC Nijmegen
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- May 2 · v Telstar (H)1-1
- Apr 25 · at FC Twente (A)1-1
- Apr 19 · at AZ (A)1-5
- Apr 12 · v Feyenoord (H)1-1
- Apr 4 · at Excelsior (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.