Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Nov 23 · 15:45 · FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 65%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen65%61%+4
OursMarket
Draw19%23%−4
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle16%16%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 84% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 39% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 77% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 79% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Nov 9 · at NEC Nijmegen (A)0-2
- Nov 2 · v FC Twente (H)1-1
- Oct 30 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-5
- Oct 25 · at Fortuna Sittard (A)2-1
- Oct 19 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)0-2
PEC Zwolle
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Nov 8 · v Sparta Rotterdam (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Heracles Almelo (A)2-8
- Oct 28 · at Helmond Sport (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)2-2
- Oct 18 · at NAC Breda (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.