Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:00 · FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle
Likeliest: FC Groningen win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Groningen59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%−1
OursMarket
PEC Zwolle19%20%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 66% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 64% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 75% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Groningen
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 12 · at Go Ahead Eagles (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v FC Twente (H)2-2
- Aug 28 · v Fortuna Sittard (H)2-3
- Aug 23 · at PSV Eindhoven (A)1-5
- Aug 16 · at ADO Den Haag (A)4-1
PEC Zwolle
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 13 · v Feyenoord (H)0-7
- Sep 4 · at Sparta Rotterdam (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v NEC Nijmegen (H)1-3
- Aug 22 · at SC Heerenveen (A)2-0
- Aug 16 · at FC Twente (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | FC Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.