Ykkösliiga (Finland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 15:30 · FC Haka vs HJK Klubi 04
Likeliest: FC Haka win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Haka65%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
HJK Klubi 0415%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 65% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 79% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Haka
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Sep 12 · at EIF (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v MP (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · at KTP (A)1-2
- Aug 21 · v SJK Akatemia (H)2-0
- Aug 14 · at JäPS (A)2-1
HJK Klubi 04
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 12 · at Jippo Joensuu (A)1-3
- Sep 7 · v KäPa (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at SJK Akatemia (A)6-2
- Aug 22 · v MP (H)4-3
- Aug 15 · at PK-35 (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | FC Haka | HJK Klubi 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-3 | 2-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.