National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · FC Halifax Town vs Gateshead
Likeliest: FC Halifax Town win · 68%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 68% for the home win. The market says 66%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
FC Halifax Town68%66%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
Gateshead13%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 87% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 32% | 34% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
FC Halifax Town
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 3 · at Solihull Moors (A)2-0
- Sep 29 · v Boston United (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Worthing FC (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Sutton United (H)1-1
- Sep 15 · at Wealdstone (A)1-0
Gateshead
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 3 · v Worthing FC (H)1-2
- Sep 29 · v Altrincham (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Wealdstone (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · v Southend United (H)1-6
- Sep 16 · at Kidderminster Harriers (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | FC Halifax Town | Gateshead |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 0-1-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.