3. Liga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 12:00 · F.C. Hansa Rostock vs Fortuna Düsseldorf
Likeliest: F.C. Hansa Rostock win · 45%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
F.C. Hansa Rostock45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Fortuna Düsseldorf29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 60% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
F.C. Hansa Rostock
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Alemannia Aachen (A)0-2
- Oct 13 · v SV Meppen (H)0-2
- Oct 10 · at FC Würzburger Kickers (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Rot-Weiss Essen (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · v VfB Stuttgart II U21 (H)3-2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v 1. FC Saarbrücken (H)1-3
- Oct 14 · at Preußen Münster (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v SC Verl (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Alemannia Aachen (A)0-1
- Sep 15 · at SSV Jahn Regensburg (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | F.C. Hansa Rostock | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.